dr morbius
Senior Cook
For some time now, the expectation around the NFL has been that the Bears would use the #1 overall draft pick to select Caleb Williams, and trade Justin Fields, most likely for a day two pick (2nd or 3rd round). But recently the market for Fields appears to have softened, and today the New England Patriots traded Mac Jones to Jacksonville for - get this - a 6th round pick.
Now, there's an argument to be made that Justin Fields is objectively better than Mac Jones. After a very good rookie season in which he threw for 3800 yards, Jones has gotten progressively worse and is a start-over project for the Jaguars. Fields has shown better numbers every season and many observers, myself included, think he might be pretty good if he ever takes a field with a full decent offensive line and three receivers. But Fields is not, according to the numbers, a whole lot better than Jones and so it's beginning to look like the best the Bears can hope to get in a trade right now is a 5th rounder.
I think Justin Fields has what they call a very high ceiling, meaning if he realizes his potential, he can be a really good player. I think the Bears have prevented him from reaching that ceiling, with a first season behind a horrid line with no receivers and a poor coach, and a second season intentionally tanked, and a third season with one receiver and half the year with a banged up line. Pretty much everyone with the team has to agree that he's worth more than a 5th rounder. So the question now is, what to do?
One option is to hang onto Fields for now, and wait. If a quarterback gets injured in the early going in 2024, which is far more likely than not, his value may increase. If the Bears do decide to hang onto him for a season and have Caleb watch and learn, AND the Bears do as expected and improve their center position through free agency and draft a stud receiver, Fields might blossom into a superstar. At the least, they would know for sure he's not the guy if they finally give him the tools to win and he fails. The only other option I see is to suck it up, take the 5th rounder, and move on.
Now, there's an argument to be made that Justin Fields is objectively better than Mac Jones. After a very good rookie season in which he threw for 3800 yards, Jones has gotten progressively worse and is a start-over project for the Jaguars. Fields has shown better numbers every season and many observers, myself included, think he might be pretty good if he ever takes a field with a full decent offensive line and three receivers. But Fields is not, according to the numbers, a whole lot better than Jones and so it's beginning to look like the best the Bears can hope to get in a trade right now is a 5th rounder.
I think Justin Fields has what they call a very high ceiling, meaning if he realizes his potential, he can be a really good player. I think the Bears have prevented him from reaching that ceiling, with a first season behind a horrid line with no receivers and a poor coach, and a second season intentionally tanked, and a third season with one receiver and half the year with a banged up line. Pretty much everyone with the team has to agree that he's worth more than a 5th rounder. So the question now is, what to do?
One option is to hang onto Fields for now, and wait. If a quarterback gets injured in the early going in 2024, which is far more likely than not, his value may increase. If the Bears do decide to hang onto him for a season and have Caleb watch and learn, AND the Bears do as expected and improve their center position through free agency and draft a stud receiver, Fields might blossom into a superstar. At the least, they would know for sure he's not the guy if they finally give him the tools to win and he fails. The only other option I see is to suck it up, take the 5th rounder, and move on.